Analysis of smoking prevalence reduction in nineteen countries using the estimated policy effect size of the SimSmoke model.
Principal Investigator:
David Levy
Sponsor: World Lung Foundation
07/19/10  10/25/11
This consulting project would use the estimated policy effect sizes from SimSmoke model to a) predict the effect of policies implemented during 2008 that have been implemented by countries meeting one or more of the MPOWER goals, and b) compare those results to the effects as shown by SimSmoke models for two selected countries. These results in b) will be used to show the limitations in using the simpler estimates in a) and to suggest ways of evaluating the effect of MPOWER policies implemented in the future. Specifically, The Consultant agrees to perform the following activities: 1) Collection of data. The following data would be required: a. Current and past policies. b. Population data to determine the number of smokers. c. Smoking rates distinguishing males and females. d. Death rates 2) Develop estimates for each country: a. Calculate the change in smoking rate as a result of reaching the MPOWER goal for each country in terms of 1) 3 years after the policy is implemented (i.e., the short term effect) and 2) 20 years after the policy is implemented (i.e., the long term effect). b. Calculate the reduction in smokers in the shortterm and long term c. Calculate the number of lives saved for each country based on the formula that half of smokers will die from smoking related causes based on longterm and shortterm estimates of reduction in smokers. d. For all nations as total calculate: i) the reduction in smokers and ii) the number of lives saved for all nations reaching the MPOWER goals. 3) Use models for two nations to validate: The previously developed Turkey and Egypt models will be use to show how the effects on smoking prevalence, number of smokers and deaths attributable to smoking evolve over time using a more sophisticated model. 4) Write report that includes: a. Description of methodology b. Results by nation and for the two SimSmoke nations c. Limitations of the analysis and suggested future analyses for the purposes of evaluation 5) Review and rewrite of report based on suggestions of Bloomberg staff. 6) Produce a paper for a peerreviewed journal, to be submitted upon completion of project. Journalrequested rewrites are included in estimate.
