Modeling the Effects of MPOWER Policies Using the SimSmoke Model

Principal Investigator:

David Levy


Bloomberg Family Foundation
04/02/08 - 09/30/08
The SimSmoke simulation model first projects the smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths over time (usually a 20 year period time period) from the most recent year onward. First, the model estimates these outcomes in the absence of any policy change (status quo), and then estimates the effect of tobacco control policies on those outcomes. The model has been described in a series of over 25 articles, and has been shown to predict well at the national and state level. The model has been developed for 6 different states and 10 different nations. Medium to low income nations include: Albania, Argentina, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The nation models have been set up to estimate the effect of a set of policies, individually and in combination, that are consistent with the FCTC. The model for each model requires national data on population, mortality rates, fertility rates, smoking rates (broken down by never smoker, smoker and ex-smoker categories), and information on the policies currently in effect. Except for policy information, the data for the initial year is generally broken down by gender and then by 5-10 year/age groups. Statement of Work Develop models for the following low/middle income nations: China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, Ukraine, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Poland; and the following high income nations: US, Japan, and Germany. For the purposes of this project, we would begin the model in the year 2008, but would use smoking prevalence data for the most recent year for which there is a large scale survey of smoking prevalence. Prevalence data will be collected using existing published surveys, data already held by Dr. Levy, or from the World Health Organization's InfoBase.* Each nation model would predict the number of smokers, the smoking prevalence, and smoking-attributable deaths. We would predict status quo levels and levels when MPOWER policies are implemented, as specified by Bloomberg Philanthropies (BP) staff.